3 Of Don'ts When Betting On Mix Parlay

Betting Help / Betting Strategy

October 01,2020
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Jake Woodward

Betting On Mix Parlay

All bookmakers offer the mix parlay option and advertise it insistently. They encourage us to make combination bets. They show gamblers' success stories that made a lot of money creating huge odds. Actually, mix parlay could be a way to increase profitability if you are careful when using it. In this sense, here we will show you three "don'ts" you must have in mind when betting on mix parlay.

1.- Don't place a bet parlay without analyzing odds and probabilities before

Parlay bets unify several simultaneous results in a single bet. Therefore, we can obtain high odds with a single bet. This sounds attractive doesn't it? However, only by analyzing the probabilities implicit in the odds, we can be profitable in the long term. Suppose we want to make a parlay bet including these two soccer matches:

Juventus (2.2) - Lazio (2.9), Draw (3.5)
Rome (2.7) - Atalanta (3.0), Draw (3.6)

If we bet that both matches end in a draw, our bet odds would be 3.3 x 3.6 = 12.60. As we can see, we will obtain a very high quota if we match both forecasts. But, if we do not hit both simultaneously, we will lose our bet. Take into account that the possible results between both matches are 9, and only one of them will be the winner.

So, when will it make sense to combine bets? When we know that the probability estimated for each result is greater than the probability implicit in their odds. To understand this, you must compare the probability implied in the odds (1 divided by the odd) against the result's estimated probability.

2.- Don't include more than three matches in one parlay bet

If we combine several different matches in one bet, the probability of all forecast occurs decreases rapidly as we include more matches in the bet. For example, we combine three possible different matches' results in one bet. Each has an odd equal to 0.5. The probability of all happening is:

0.5x0.5x0.5 = 0.125 or 12.5% occurring probability.

If we include five games in a parlay bet, our success probability will be 3.1%. It's easy to see how our success chances decrease. Thus, including three games in a parlay mix is daring. Including more than three would be crazy.

3.- Don't bet on more than one heavy underdog in one parlay bet

Don't forget this maxim: When we bet on a heavy underdog, we should never combine it with another. The probability of hitting a bet on a non-favorite is low. So, imagine how it would decrease if you include more than one heavy underdog in the same parlay bet! Suppose we bet on two possible results in the next Euro Cup. One of them has an odd of 6 and the other an odd equal to 8. Our probability of success would be only 2.08%!

Conclusion

When betting on mix parlays, we must always keep in mind that high odds imply low hit frequencies. This involves dangerous losing streaks that can leave us out of funds. Therefore, to beat the bookies by placing mix parlays, we must remind these three "of don'ts" we have mentioned. It is preferable to find two carefully chosen favorites and bundle them together into a parlay. The result is a much smaller stake at risk and will have a good return.

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