What Is Expected Goals (xG) and How to Use It in Soccer Betting

Betting Guide / Betting Help

April 07,2025
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Nedim Maric

What Is Expected Goals (xG) and How to Use It in Betting

In the world of modern soccer analysis, few metrics are as influential as Expected Goals (xG). Originally developed by data analysts to evaluate chance quality, xG is now a go-to stat for smart bettors looking to find value and make more informed decisions. In this guide, we break down what xG is, how it works, and how you can use it to sharpen your soccer betting strategy.

1. What Is Expected Goals (xG)?

Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical model that estimates the likelihood of a shot resulting in a goal based on factors like:

Shot location
Shot type (header, foot, etc.)
Assist type (cross, through ball, etc.)
Game situation (open play, set-piece, counterattack)
Distance from goal
Angle of the shot

Each shot is given a value between 0 and 1. For example, a tap-in from close range might have an xG of 0.85 (85% chance), while a long-range shot might be 0.05 (5%).

2. Why xG Is So Valuable for Bettors

Reveals True Performance – Teams might win or lose, but xG shows who created the better chances.
Identifies Over/Undervalued Teams – A team with high xG but few goals might be unlucky or due for a turnaround.
Predicts Future Outcomes – Consistent xG trends often point to reliable long-term form.

3. How to Use xG in Soccer Betting

A. Spot Teams Due for a Turnaround

If a team consistently creates high xG but hasn’t been scoring, they may be undervalued in the market. This presents a betting opportunity before odds adjust.

B. Fade Overperforming Teams

If a team is winning with low xG, it could be unsustainable. They may be lucky or reliant on finishing efficiency that won’t last.

C. Support Underdogs with Strong xG

Lower-tier teams that post competitive xG numbers against stronger opponents often offer great value in Asian Handicap or Double Chance markets.

D. Improve Over/Under Betting

Compare a team’s xG for and xG against to help predict total goals. Teams with high combined xG values are prime candidates for over 2.5 goal markets.

4. Where to Find xG Data

Reliable platforms include:

Understat
FBref
SofaScore
WhoScored
Infogol

These sites provide match-level and player-level xG data for deeper betting insights.

5. xG Limitations to Keep in Mind

Doesn’t account for goalkeeping quality
Doesn’t factor in game pressure or mental state
Can mislead in low sample sizes (e.g., 1-2 matches)

xG is a tool—not a guarantee. Combine it with other stats like shots on target, possession, and actual goals for the full picture.

Conclusion

Expected Goals (xG) is one of the most powerful metrics in soccer betting. It goes beyond the scoreline to show who really performed better and where the value lies. By tracking xG trends and pairing them with smart market analysis, you can spot betting opportunities the public often misses.

Use it wisely, and your betting strategy will become sharper, smarter, and more profitable over time.

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