How to make the most of PPG statistics

How to make the most of PPG statistics

March 17,2019
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Bruce Williams

How to make the most of PPG (points per game) statistics

It is becoming more common for football sites to show points per game (PPG) alongside each team competing that day or weekend. PPG statistics is the number of points gained divided by the number of games played. It is an average throughout the season.

But how useful can it be when betting on football?

Well, the answer is it can be helpful, but it isn’t that useful just by itself. Because PPG takes into account the whole season to date, it doesn’t show you whether a team is in form at the moment, or whether they have had a lucky run of 1-0 wins, for example. In fact, where it can be useful is using it as a baseline when looking at other statistics. One way you can do this is to look at a team’s last five, six, eight – whatever number you choose – matches and see how many points a team has won. Divide that by your chosen number of matches and compare with the overall PPG.

If a team’s recent PPG (your calculated figure) is better than their overall PPG, it shows they are in good form and improving. If the number is less, then they are in a dip. Take the Premier League table at the time of writing (30th Jan) and applying a figure of the last eight matches shows us that Manchester City’s figure is lower than their overall season PPG statistics. The next four teams have a positive difference and the next five negative, showing that City’s challengers are in the middle of good runs having overtaken the sides below them, who have stagnated over the Christmas/New Year period.

So what, you might be thinking.

This particularly computed PPG statistic is another tool for your betting strategy. You will have the indicators that you look for ahead of every match, such as recent form, team line-ups, head-to-head, but you can use this as another indicator of form to help you. For example, take the match between Huddersfield Town and Liverpool. Liverpool, in fourth, has an overall season PPG of 1.93, yet in their last eight, have taken 2.13 –a step up, mainly on the back of four wins in a row before a shock defeat to Swansea City.

Huddersfield, on the other hand, has an overall season PPG of 1.00, but a computed PPG of just 0.75 – relegation form, indeed, on the back of three straight defeats. You would probably already be favoring a Liverpool win in this match without taking this extra calculation into account, but it is a useful way of highlighting differences in form between two sides. With such a large gap – and in fact, the gap gets larger if you use a smaller sample size – it can help confirm that on this occasion, a Liverpool win is very likely.

You would probably then want to drill down and see if you can find some value in another market such as over/under 2.5 goals or an Asian handicap gave that Liverpool’s odds will be small – but using this little calculation might help get you to that point a little quicker.

To understand more about PPG statistics please go to this link